Along with his defense and foreign ministries, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarus on Monday, stoking fears in Kyiv that he plans to urge his former Soviet partner to join a new ground attack that would open a new front against Ukraine.
Putin played a more visible role in the conflict after his soldiers were driven back in the north, northeast, and south of Ukraine since their invasion in February. On Friday, he went to the headquarters of his operation to talk to military leaders.
It was his first visit to Minsk since 2019—before the COVID outbreak and a wave of pro-democracy rallies in 2020 that Lukashenko put down with heavy Kremlin backing. He was there for meetings with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Russian forces launched their unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, from Belarus in February, and there has been ongoing military activity between Russia and Belarus there for months.
Belarus is Russia’s “number one ally,” according to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, but claims that Moscow wants to compel Minsk into joining what it calls its “special military operation” are “stupid and unjustified fabrications,” he added.
Serhiy Nayev, the commander of the Ukrainian combined forces, had stated that he thought the discussions would cover “more aggression against Ukraine and the larger engagement of the Belarusian armed forces in the operation against Ukraine, in particular, in our judgment, especially on the ground.”
According to Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhniy, Russia is assembling 200,000 new troops for a big offensive that might originate in the east, south, or even Belarus as early as January. Still, it is more likely to occur in the spring.
In Belarus, Moscow and Minsk established a combined military unit and conducted several drills. Last Monday, Belarus received three Russian airplanes and an airborne early warning and control aircraft.
But Lukashenko, a figurehead in the West firmly backed by Moscow, has repeatedly declared that Belarus will not join the conflict in Ukraine. Using Belarusian troops would be extremely controversial domestically, according to foreign officials.
SANCTIONS
Due to Western sanctions, Belarus finds it challenging to export its major export, potash fertilizers, through Baltic ports.
Western military analysts claim that although Lukashenko’s little army lacks the power and fighting prowess to make a significant difference, by pressuring Ukraine to concentrate its forces in the north, Russia may be able to attack Ukraine more easily from other directions.
On December 13, the Pentagon stated that it did not currently see “any type of anticipated cross-border activity by Belarus.”
Putin’s visit was made public on Friday following Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister, who unexpectedly traveled to Belarus on December 3 to sign an unnamed agreement with his colleague.
One of the few members of Lukashenko’s administration who had any relationship with the West, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, passed away unexpectedly last month, adding to the ominous mood music. There was no indication of a formal cause of death.
On Monday, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, met with his successor, Sergei Aleinik.
The long-running campaign to unite each of their former Soviet republics into a supranational Union State will be discussed, according to Lukashenko and Putin. The opposition in Belarus views the negotiations as a cover for a subtly advancing annexation by Russia.
After their discussions, they would respond to queries from the media, according to BelTA, the state news agency of Belarus.
Following the announcement of the negotiations with Putin, Lukashenko abruptly said at a government meeting that any ceding of sovereignty would betray the Belarusian people.
Following these extensive talks, “everyone will say: ‘That’s it, there are no longer any authorities in Belarus, the Russians are already wandering about and governing the nation,'” Lukashenko predicted.
“I want to emphasize this again in particular: Nobody but us runs Belarus.”
He said he would speak with Putin about economic collaboration, energy supplies, defense, and security.
Peskov was quoted by Russian media as claiming that “no one is pushing anyone to integrate.”
